Zionist aggression against Iran…the objectives, results and consequences of the Twelve Day War (1-2)

Yemen

Yamanat

Abdul Wahab Al-Sharafi*

At an unexpected moment, the Zionist entity was surprised by directing a strike against Iran. Over the course of 12 days, the two sides exchanged strikes, and America fell into line and directed a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities in a hostile act not covered by law. Just as this confrontation started suddenly, it also ended suddenly.

The Zionist entity has defined the objectives of its aggression with three objectives, the first of which is the elimination of Iran’s nuclear program, the elimination of Iran’s ballistic capabilities and Iran’s abandonment of the role it plays in the Mediterranean region. The Zionist entity meets America in these objectives, and it meets the European Troika in the first objective, at least officially.

The entity has directed concentrated strikes on sites of Iran’s nuclear program, with the exception of the Bushehr reactor. In addition to the entity strikes, America led a strike against Iran’s three largest and most notorious uranium enrichment sites. Official statements are contradictory regarding the results of these strikes, between the entity and America, which declares the complete destruction of the targeted sites and, by extension, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, and Iran, which declares damage to its facility, but it has not been completely destroyed, and that it will resume its nuclear program and even expand it. .

Until now, no impartial professional report has been issued in an official capacity, nor any professional report specialized in the numerical estimation of damages issued by the three parties. However, extrapolation of the statements of specialized nuclear agencies regarding nuclear effects after the strikes leads to the conclusion that the strikes caused damage to the facilities but did not completely or even fundamentally destroy them. If the enrichment facilities were completely struck, or more precisely if the centrifuges were destroyed, there must be nuclear contamination that extends beyond the interior of the facilities, except that this has not happened, and the Iranian Nuclear Power, International Agency, NASA or the competent body of the Gulf States all agree on the absence of radioactive effects resulting from the strikes which targeted the sites of the nuclear program, to the extent that the neighboring residents of these facilities inside Iran were reassured.

Iran said its stockpile of enriched uranium had been transferred from targeted facilities to secure sites, and Iran communicated with the International Agency about this. The International Agency determined the amount transferred to unknown sites at 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which is a significant amount and does not require a long period of enrichment to reach 90% and in an amount that would allow it to possess a nuclear weapon. Although I am not an expert on the subject, this quantity can still be produced. Enriched to 90%, no less than ten nuclear bombs.

Considering that Iran has not announced its withdrawal from the Treaty Prohibiting the Possession of Nuclear Weapons, and while it considers this to be its right under Article 10 of the agreement, it still maintains its position of adherence to peaceful nuclear weapons and has consistently recommended the possession of nuclear weapons. However, it is this concern that will continue to germinate in the mind of the Zionist entity, to worry and disturb it. This quantity is enriched at a very high rate, 60%, and in a large quantity that was before the aggression against Iran, under the eyes and hearing of the International Energy Agency, and after the strike. It is no longer like that, and the only certainty is that it is in Iran and that it has not been bombed.

The dividing line between a decrease in entity concern after the attack on Iranian nuclear facilities or its increase is that of the centrifuges, and this dividing line is influenced by four points. The first concerns the devices operating in the facilities that were affected, whether or not they were actually destroyed and the extent of the possibilities for restarting all or part of them. The second is the possibility of the presence of centrifugal devices operating in secret and undeclared places, and this cannot be confirmed as non-existence or existence, but the entity does not base its decisions on the side of trust, that is, on what it has announced. Iran confirms that all sites of its nuclear program are declared and under the supervision of the International Agency, and therefore this possibility will remain a factor of concern for the entity. The third is the presence of produced and inoperative centrifuges, that is, they are ready and stored, and Iran can put them into operation directly, despite the absence of ready and inoperative devices. The fourth is the ability to produce new centrifuges, and this is related to the idea and the accumulation of experiences, and both of these are available to Iran. The idea of ​​the centrifuges belongs to Iran, including the aspect of Iranian privacy, because it was Iran who developed it from less efficient plans it had obtained from Pakistan, and it was it which developed it for the modern devices that Iran produces and uses. It is clear that from these four points the entity cannot determine the existence of non-existence, with the exception of the fourth point, which can confirm that Iran must, even if it loses all its centrifuges as a result of a strike on its nuclear facility, produce new devices, and therefore, in order to ensure that Iran has a sufficient quantity of enriched materials close to nuclear possession, and because this quantity is not returned after the strike. Under scrutiny and due to the lack of certainty about eliminating Iran’s ability to increase its nuclear weapons enrichment capacity and to ensure that Iran will regain its enrichment capacity after a period of time, the entity’s concern after the strike led by it and Washington against Iran’s nuclear program will increase instead of decreasing.

* Writer and political analyst – Yemen
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Yemen